Published October 30, 2026. Last updated October 30, 2026.
You can’t buy what doesn’t exist. That’s the problem facing the AI industry right now.
This week, the world’s three big memory makers said the same thing in their own words: the chips AI needs are sold out for years. Samsung said it on October 29. SK Hynix said it on October 28. Micron said it earlier.
The headlines say “sold out through 2028.” The real story is more interesting, and each company said something different. Here’s what’s confirmed.
Quick answer
What is HBM? High-bandwidth memory. It’s the fast memory stacked next to AI chips from Nvidia and AMD. Without it, those chips can’t do their job.
Is it really sold out? For 2027, mostly yes. Samsung says its 2027 HBM supply is sold out. Micron says a large part of its 2027 HBM volume is. SK Hynix goes furthest, saying its DRAM and HBM are effectively sold out through 2029.
Is it all sold out through 2028? Not exactly. Samsung says shortages will continue into 2028, which means tight, not fully booked. Micron says it’s discussing some 2028 allocations.
Will prices rise? TrendForce forecasts HBM average selling prices up 121% in 2027. That’s one analyst forecast.
What did each company actually say?
Samsung (October 29)
- HBM supply for next year “is already sold out,” with pricing negotiations done at target levels, according to Seoul Economic Daily. (The article is AI-translated from Korean, so wording may differ from the original.)
- Memory shortages will get worse in 2027, with supply constraints lasting into 2028, according to Wccftech’s report on the call.
- Samsung has long-term agreements with 10 major customers. Those are expected to cover 60% to 70% of total production capacity.
- Third-quarter operating profit passed 100 trillion won on revenue of 195.3 trillion won.
SK Hynix (October 28)
- Revenue was 104.6 trillion won, its first quarter above 100 trillion. Operating profit was 83.3 trillion won, an 80% margin.
- DRAM and HBM volumes are effectively sold out through 2029, according to Decrypt and Digital Today.
- The company said demand exceeding supply is expected to continue through 2030.
- Long-term agreements with 14 major customers, including large cloud providers, cover more than half of its 2027 and 2028 capacity.
- On the earnings call, the company said customers’ volume requests are more than double what it can supply today.
Micron
- CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said “a large part of the volume is already sold out for 2027 for HBM,” per Ajupress.
- Agreements cover the vast majority of its calendar 2027 HBM supply, at prices “significantly higher” than 2026.
- Micron says 2027 and 2028 will be much tighter than 2026, and it has no “line of sight” to when supply and demand will balance.
- It’s discussing some customer allocations for 2028.
Do the big cloud companies own all of it?
Not “nearly all,” based on what the companies disclosed. SK Hynix says long-term deals with 14 customers cover over half of capacity for 2027 and 2028. Samsung puts its figure at 60% to 70%. Micron didn’t name its customers.
SK Hynix says its customers are major cloud providers. Samsung says its customers are expanding beyond big cloud into mobile, automotive and networking. The claim that specific names like Microsoft, Google, Meta and Amazon have locked up everything isn’t in what I could verify.
Why can’t they just build more?
Because chips don’t scale like software. A few reasons from the companies themselves:
- New fabs open in stages. SK Hynix’s CFO said supply doesn’t rise in direct proportion to investment or the number of new fabs. Micron’s first Idaho expansion is expected to start wafer output around mid-2027.
- HBM eats capacity. Samsung says next-generation HBM uses larger dies and more metal layers, which reduces total bit output when production shifts from regular DRAM to HBM.
- Everything competes for the same wafers. TrendForce says HBM and conventional DRAM fight over limited advanced-process capacity.
That’s why spending more doesn’t fix it quickly. Samsung has raised spending but says it doesn’t expect that to drive bit production growth.
Is memory really the biggest bottleneck in AI?
That’s an analyst framing, not something the companies said. But the evidence points that way. If customers want more than double what SK Hynix can make, and nobody sees supply catching up before 2028, memory is clearly a bottleneck. Chip design, power and data center space matter too. For more on the money going into data centers, see my post on Microsoft’s AI spending and buyout offer.
How much will prices go up?
TrendForce projects the blended average selling price for HBM will jump 121% year over year in 2027. It raised that forecast from an earlier one. Drivers include persistent supply limits, more expensive HBM4, and the gradual ramp of HBM4e in the second half of 2027.
Some chip designers are considering 8-high HBM stacks instead of 12-high to get around shortages. TrendForce expects 8-high to carry a roughly 10% to 20% per-gigabit premium in 2027.
Treat 121% as a forecast. Memory prices have been volatile, and TrendForce didn’t publish the full model.
What does this mean for regular buyers?
Regular memory is getting caught in the squeeze. SK Hynix said average DRAM prices rose in the high-20% range quarter over quarter, and NAND prices in the mid-20% range. Its CFO expects PC and mobile shipments to fall as memory prices rise.
If you buy or sell laptops, phones, RAM or SSDs, expect higher prices, and possibly thinner stock, as memory makers favor AI customers. That’s my reading of the trend, not a forecast from the companies. Prices for any specific product depend on many things.
What we still don’t know
- Whether “sold out” means shipped, contracted, or simply committed. These companies use the words loosely.
- How fast new capacity arrives. First big additions from Micron and others start around mid-2027, with more later.
- Whether AI demand holds. Everything above assumes cloud spending keeps growing.
- Whether customers shift to cheaper memory designs, like 8-high stacks, and ease the squeeze.
FAQ
What does HBM sold out mean?
It means memory makers have already agreed to sell most or all of their expected HBM output, so new buyers can’t get supply for those periods.
Is HBM sold out through 2028?
Not fully. Samsung says its 2027 HBM is sold out and shortages continue into 2028. SK Hynix says DRAM and HBM are effectively sold out through 2029. Micron says much of its 2027 HBM is sold out and is discussing 2028.
Which companies make HBM?
Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron are the major suppliers named in this week’s earnings coverage.
Why is HBM so important for AI?
AI chips need very fast access to memory. HBM stacks memory chips close to the processor, which gives the speed AI training and inference require.
How much will HBM prices rise in 2027?
TrendForce forecasts a 121% increase in the blended average selling price year over year. That’s a forecast, not a confirmed price.
Will phone and laptop prices go up?
Likely pressure, but not guaranteed. SK Hynix expects PC and mobile demand to weaken as memory prices rise, since makers pass costs on or ship less.
Bottom line
The “sold out through 2028” line is a rounded-up version of something more nuanced: HBM is booked for 2027, tight into 2028, and SK Hynix says its DRAM and HBM are effectively sold out to 2029.
For anyone building or buying anything that needs memory, the message is the same. Supply is short, new capacity is slow, and AI customers are first in line.
Sources
- Seoul Economic Daily: Samsung says 2027 HBM supply already sold out
- Wccftech: Samsung says memory shortages will get worse in 2027
- The Next Web: SK Hynix profit jumps 632%
- Decrypt: SK Hynix record quarter
- Digital Today: SK Hynix posts record results
- Aju Press: Micron signals longer AI bonanza for Samsung, SK Hynix
- TrendForce: HBM blended ASP forecast to jump 121% in 2027